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Horse Racing Betting Tips

GOOD TRACKS
On Good tracks fast horses will win more races than slow horses. However rain affected surfaces are a big equalizer. That is where the plodder without the quick turn of foot can win races. It just keeps plodding away at the same pace.

WEIGHT
Heavy weights on rain affected tracks bog down many class horses. On Good tracks weight is not so significant. However when a horse faces a weight rise in combination with a change from a good barrier draws to a very wide barrier draw there is a multiplying affect of disadvantages.
A horse's ability to carry weight is a critical factor, which cannot be ignored. It is like the weightlifter that lifts a heavy weight but fails at the next increased weight. Each horse has an individual weight level beyond which it cannot perform in races to anywhere near its natural ability.

TRACK BIAS

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THE CHALLENGE OF RATINGS
The thrilling challenge of ratings is lining up the form, condition and ability over a particular distance of one horse with another and then putting it all together to frame a realistic, value market which long term makes profits. There is nothing more thrilling than occasionally obtaining absolutely massive overlays.

BOOKMAKERS AND PUNTERS
The best bookmakers are highly intelligent and successful businessmen. They work long hours, study the form thoroughly and are also quick thinking, able to react quickly without panic to changing circumstances. They enjoy a challenge but will not accept it if they believe the odds are poor value. They know that to win they must have an edge. This edge is having the ability to know when they have the advantage.

The average punter does not have the edge. It is impossible to have an edge betting from race to race on the spur of the moment. Just look at the number of punters now even betting on computerized phantom horse races at the TAB. It is impossible to get an edge. They must lose. There are punters who will go to casinos, play blackjack and count the cards. That is smart play. They have the edge. Then there are the majority of punters who will just sit down at the blackjack table and play. They will never have the edge and will be long-term losers.

The important thing when you have the edge is the ability to use the information you have to predict the outcome more often than random chance will allow. That is what the bookie does who spends hours studying form. That is what the professional punter does. That is not what your average punter does.

JOCKEYS
You cannot dismiss the ability of the jockey engaged to ride the horse when trying to evaluate the horse's chances of winning a race. Statistically it is just about impossible to measure the difference between any number of leading jockeys: Brett Prebble, Damien Oliver, Darren Gauci, Jim Cassidy, Danny Beasley, Glenn Boss.

A good, experienced jockey more than compensates for an apprentice's weight allowance unless we are dealing with an exceptional talent. However there are also some senior jockeys who I would never back even if they were on Pharr Lap or Tulloch. A chimpanzee could ride the horse better!!

TIME AND DISTANCE
As I said earlier these are the absolute keys to ratings. You must know what times a horse can run and over what distance. On Good and Fast tracks a comparison can be made of the different times run by horses that day making allowances for many factors such as weight carried, distance of the race, class and a host of other factors like barrier draws, luck in running and so on. When you know what time a particular horse is capable of running on a particular track over a particular distance and you combine that with an assessment of the weight carrying capacity of the horse you are well on the way to creating powerful ratings.

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